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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still